Overview
- Merz, in a ZDF interview Wednesday, said a minority government is “not doable” for him and ruled out any reliance on AfD votes, calling for patience and labeling the CDU’s 24 percent in polls “completely unacceptable.”
- Public approval of the government has sunk to 15 percent in ARD’s Deutschlandtrend, and the AfD has edged into the lead in ZDF’s Politbarometer at 26 percent, adding pressure on both coalition parties.
- Tensions over the next steps in the reform program persist, with the CDU pushing income tax relief while the SPD argues for higher top rates, and recent rows over pensions following cabinet plans to shore up health insurance finances.
- Coalition endgame scenarios are now openly discussed, with Merz conceding “no one can guarantee anything,” as party figures and analysts see staying the course as likelier than a minority experiment and warn early elections could still follow a collapse.
- Economic stagnation, higher energy and transport costs linked to the Middle East war, and looming budget gaps by 2027 are tightening the screws on Berlin, even as CDU and SPD still strike black‑red deals in states such as Rhineland‑Palatinate.