Overview
- Several polls taken after the federal budget, including a Redbridge/Accent Research survey of 25–28 May, showed One Nation polling at parity with or above the major parties with one poll giving it 31 percent to Labor’s 28 percent.
- The party has converted momentum into at least one federal seat when One Nation’s David Farley won the Farrer by‑election in May and took his place in the House of Representatives.
- Pauline Hanson has publicly said she would consider being prime minister but she sits in the Senate and would need a substantial lower‑house bloc or to move to the House and win a seat to command confidence under Westminster practice.
- One Nation’s readiness to govern is questioned after recent policy flip‑flops and internal problems, including Barnaby Joyce’s retracted proposal on forcing permanent residents to sell homes and reports of branch closures over extremist infiltration.
- Commentators link the surge to voter backlash against Labor’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes while analysts warn polls are snapshots not forecasts and the next federal election is not due until 2028.