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One Nation Leads Victoria Primary Vote in AFR/Redbridge Poll

The result raises questions about how One Nation's strength in rural and outer suburbs could affect seat contests because preference flows still favour Labor and the Coalition.

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Overview

  • The AFR/Redbridge survey puts One Nation on 27% primary support in Victoria while Labor and the Coalition each sit on 26%, marking a rise for One Nation since February.
  • On three-candidate-preferred figures the poll gives Labor 39.9%, the Coalition 30.1% and One Nation 29.9%, and on a two-party-preferred basis the Coalition leads Labor 54-46.
  • One Nation's primary support is strongest outside inner Melbourne, at about 34% in rural seats, 31% in provincial areas and 28% in outer metropolitan electorates, and its voters showed the highest reported loyalty at 62%.
  • Converting primary votes into seats will depend on how preferences flow and where support is concentrated because One Nation has minimal formal representation in Victoria and no state leader.
  • The state surge comes as federal polls show One Nation weakening and follows high-profile events including Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club address and recent state political turbulence that may be shaping voter sentiment.