Overview
- One Nation moved from the fringe to a real electoral threat after winning the Farrer federal by-election in May and then topping some national polls in June, producing a rapid surge of regional support.
- Polling in parts of eastern Victoria and Gippsland has shown One Nation winning around a quarter to a third of primary votes, making seats such as Morwell, Gippsland South and Gippsland East vulnerable.
- Pauline Hanson’s high-profile overseas visits and inflammatory remarks, including comments on domestic violence, have triggered broad backlash and coincided with a fall in some polls from roughly 31.5% to about 22.5% primary support.
- Senior Liberals have publicly debated tactical options, with Senator Andrew Bragg saying the party would be 'pragmatic' about coalitions if numbers required it while party leaders formally rule out joining One Nation.
- Retirements and vacant seats in regional electorates, local economic pain from factory and industry closures, and One Nation’s short, brand-led campaign model have combined to reshape local contests and could alter preference flows under Australia’s ranked voting system.