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Olin Slides on Soft Q4 Outlook as Analysts Trim Price Targets

The company forecast $110 million to $130 million in fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA, below the $169 million consensus.

Overview

  • Shares fell 12.45% on Tuesday to close at $21.03 following the guidance shortfall and a price-target cut, then rose 6.2% Wednesday to trade near $22.33.
  • Olin’s fourth-quarter outlook of $110 million to $130 million in adjusted EBITDA trails Street expectations of $169 million.
  • Management said the guidance includes a $40 million penalty tied to planned inventory reductions due to softer demand and typical seasonal weakness.
  • Mizuho lowered its price target to $25 with a neutral rating, while Keybanc, Wells Fargo, Truist, and UBS also cut their targets.
  • The company reported a third-quarter swing to $42.8 million in net income on $1.713 billion in sales, and highlighted its Beyond250 cost program and plans to end 2025 with net debt comparable to year-end 2024.