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Oil Volatility Near $80 as Hormuz Talks Collide With Iran Draft and Attack Claims

Diplomatic movement on a Hormuz corridor has not ended Tehran’s draft transit limits or renewed maritime attack claims, keeping a security premium on oil.

Overview

  • Iran and Oman agreed on geographic coordinates for a possible Strait of Hormuz route but did not finalize terms on fees, inspections or security, leaving reopening uncertain.
  • Iran’s state media published a draft Thursday that would bar U.S. and Israeli-linked vessels from transiting Hormuz and impose financial penalties on violators.
  • Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed missile strikes on two Saudi oil tankers while Saudi authorities have not confirmed the incidents.
  • Markets turned on mixed supply signals as U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose by about 2.5 million barrels and Saudi Aramco cut its Arab Light Asia price, producing rapid swings with Brent trading roughly between $79 and $83.
  • Refining outages from regional fighting and strikes on facilities keep gasoline and diesel prices elevated even if crude eases, and agencies such as Fitch say a verified reopening could push Brent toward the low $70s while continued disruption would keep prices high.