Overview
- Brent crude, which climbed to about $115–$117 Wednesday, rose after a Wall Street Journal report said the U.S. will prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports.
- President Trump warned Iran to “get smart soon” in a social media post as negotiations to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz stalled and traders braced for extended disruption.
- The United Arab Emirates said Tuesday it will leave OPEC on May 1, a break that analysts say has little near‑term effect while Hormuz stays restricted but could change supply options once flows resume.
- JPMorgan estimates war‑related disruptions have removed about 13.7 million barrels per day from supply as governments tapped strategic reserves, including a record 400 million‑barrel IEA‑led release, with Goldman Sachs warning stocks could hit record lows.
- The World Bank projects a 24% jump in 2026 energy prices, warning of higher inflation and food risks as the EU counts heavy daily energy costs and Pakistan reports a weekly oil bill that has surged to $800 million.