Overview
- Brent rose to about $103 after President Trump on Monday called Iran’s reply “completely unacceptable” and said the fragile truce had a 1% chance of holding.
- Saudi Aramco reported first‑quarter profit up roughly 25–26% to about $32.5–33.6 billion as it maxed its East–West pipeline, which can move 7 million barrels a day to the Red Sea.
- Aramco says the world is short about one billion barrels since late February, and analysts warn stocks could hit a stressed state in June and an operational minimum by early autumn.
- With the Strait of Hormuz handling about a fifth of global seaborne oil, shippers are detouring around the Cape of Good Hope and using Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah for cargo handoffs and desert trucking, adding weeks and higher fuel costs.
- A second choke point looms at Bab al‑Mandab under Huthi threat, and Europe’s response is split as the UK and France plan a Tuesday call on a protection mission while EU ministers in Brussels held off on new Iran steps.