Overview
- Markets drove prices lower on growing reports of progress in U.S.-Iran talks and President Trump pausing planned strikes, which traders said could ease sanctions and raise Iranian exports.
- That dip reversed on Wednesday after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement claimed a missile strike on a Saudi tanker near Yanbu, pushing Brent back toward the $80-per-barrel level in intraday trading.
- U.S. Central Command separately said the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz was 'free and open' to commercial vessels, a statement traders saw as partially reassuring but not decisive for flows.
- Analysts including Goldman Sachs cautioned that physical flows remain well below prewar levels and that refinery bottlenecks and depleted inventories sustain an upside risk premium on prices.
- Investors will watch whether a verified U.S.-Iran agreement materializes, any confirmed shipping disruptions, and signs of Gulf export recovery because those factors will determine whether prices settle lower or spike higher.