Oil Surges After US–Iran Ceasefire Fails and Russian Crude Piles Up at Sea

Overview

• Renewed US–Iran hostilities have effectively ended the fragile ceasefire and led the United States to reinstate a naval blockade and launch strikes that Tehran says prompted it to close the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent futures jumped above $87 and held near $85.7 while WTI traded near $80 as traders priced a higher risk premium for shipping disruptions and possible damage to regional energy infrastructure.
• Commercial shipping has grown more cautious after reported covert attacks on tankers and two UAE vessels were struck while operating with transponders off, which has made flow tracking harder and raised insurance and transit costs.
• Separate pressure on supplies comes from Ukrainian strikes that have cut Russian refinery runs to multi‑year lows and forced large volumes of Russian crude into tankers, which Bloomberg estimates has swelled oil afloat to about 135 million barrels.
• Policy moves such as a proposed 20% transit charge, the US notification to Congress allowing 60 days of military action, and longer unload times at hubs like Mersa el Hamra and Riau are adding legal and logistical frictions that could push fuel prices higher and slow deliveries.