Overview
- Late July crude surged past $100 a barrel before easing to about $96.78, driven by renewed Iran-related supply fears and shipping risks on routes such as the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
- Short- and medium-term U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with the two-year around 4.37% and the ten-year near 4.7%, and futures now assign roughly a 38% chance of a quarter-point Fed move at the July 28–29 meeting.
- Higher oil and rising yields tightened financial conditions and pressured volatile assets, sending Bitcoin into the mid-$60,000s and prompting fresh investor reassessments of equities and crypto.
- Central banks are watching because supply-driven energy shocks feed quickly into headline gauges such as PCE and CPI, with May PCE at about 4.1% and core PCE near 3.4%, which complicates decisions about raising rates versus supporting growth.
- The near-term outlook hinges on geopolitical developments, OPEC policy and incoming inflation data, and further energy disruptions could rapidly push yields and markets higher while higher fuel costs hurt energy-intensive businesses like crypto mining.