Overview
- Oil prices fell to roughly pre‑war levels on Thursday as traders priced in reduced disruption risk after renewed diplomatic talks and rising tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Ship‑tracking data and industry reports show dozens of tankers and several supertankers have recently exited the Persian Gulf, returning millions of barrels and helping Gulf exports rebound from the wartime near‑standstill.
- Iran’s joint military command on Thursday warned vessels to follow Tehran‑approved routes or face a “forceful response,” a public assertion of control that keeps the reopening fragile and raises the risk of sudden interruptions.
- Some banks and analysts have cut price forecasts and flagged a possible temporary oversupply driven by resumed Gulf flows and higher U.S. production, while other analysts caution that damage to infrastructure, insurance limits, and crew hesitancy constrain how fast a lasting glut could form.
- The 60‑day interim MoU that allowed toll‑free transits creates a narrow negotiation window for a longer deal, and near‑term calendar and policy risks — including funeral events, expiry of temporary sanctions relief, and an OPEC+ output rise — will shape whether flows stay steady or reverse.