Overview
- Oil benchmarks fell for a third straight day on Thursday as Qatar said U.S. and Iranian negotiators made “positive progress” in indirect talks in Doha that focused on Strait of Hormuz transit rules.
- Shipping data and trade sources show dozens of tankers have resumed exits from the Persian Gulf and Gulf ports such as Ras Tanura have restarted VLCC loadings, increasing flows though traffic remains below pre‑war norms.
- Iran’s joint military command warned on Thursday that vessels must use Tehran‑approved routes or face a “forceful response,” leaving the reopening politically fragile and creating a continued risk of sudden disruption.
- Supply additions are building downward price pressure with OPEC+ expected to approve another output hike for August, the U.S. DOE raising its 2026 production outlook, and Russian exports at multi‑year highs.
- Weak demand, especially from China, combined with resumed Gulf shipments and strategic reserve releases has prompted banks and analysts to cut forecasts and warn of a possible short‑term oversupply that could keep prices subdued.