Overview
- Futures fell Wednesday on talk of a U.S.-Iran framework, yet energy leaders and analysts say physical supply will stay tight for months.
- Global buffers are thin, with TotalEnergies estimating at least 500 million barrels already drawn and Goldman Sachs tracking a sharp drop in days of cover since February.
- Refined fuels face near-term strain, with jet fuel and diesel most at risk and Europe warned of jet deficits by June, raising the chance of summer flight cuts and higher freight costs.
- Even after a truce, flows recover slowly because ships must clear backlogs and sail 30 to 40 days and about 2 million barrels a day of regional refining capacity remains offline.
- Governments are moving to shore up supplies, as Australia pledged $7.22 billion to build fuel reserves and forecasters expect U.S. pump prices to ease only gradually from the current $4.54 average.