Overview
- U.S. stocks have slipped over the past six weeks, with the Dow and Nasdaq briefly in 10% correction territory and the S&P 500 nearing a double-digit decline.
- The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E, a 10‑year inflation‑adjusted price‑to‑earnings gauge, stood above 40 entering 2026, a level that in past episodes preceded large peak to trough losses.
- Following military operations against Iran, reports said the Strait of Hormuz was closed to most oil exports, constraining a major share of global flows and pushing crude prices sharply higher.
- Commentary argues the oil supply shock could be the catalyst that turns stretched valuations into a deeper market slide, though the timing and scale remain uncertain.
- During President Trump’s first term the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose 57%, 70%, and 142%, and all three posted double‑digit gains in the first year of his second term.