Overview
- Futures tracked by CME FedWatch assign roughly a 25% probability of a December hike, up from near zero five days earlier.
- Bank of America says a sustained move in crude above $80 per barrel could push the Federal Reserve toward tightening.
- Jerome Powell stated cuts will not proceed without clear progress on inflation and indicated he could remain chair until a successor is confirmed.
- Typically dovish Governor Chris Waller shifted to vote for holding rates, and two-year Treasury yields rose to about 3.89%, signaling tighter policy expectations.
- Prediction markets show elevated odds of zero cuts this year and rising hike risk, while Bitcoin struggles to hold $70,000 as risk assets weaken.