Overview
- Singapore’s central bank tightened at its April review by steepening the S$NEER band to let the Singapore dollar rise, and it lifted 2026 inflation forecasts as energy costs from the Iran war feed through to imports.
- Bond traders, which refocused on inflation after the weekend’s failed U.S.–Iran talks, now expect U.S. rates to stay elevated with fewer near‑term cuts and a next quarter‑point move pushed into 2027, and 10‑year Treasury yields held above 4.3%.
- In Europe, money markets see a strong chance the European Central Bank raises rates soon, with traders pricing high odds for an April increase and more in 2026 as oil and gas prices stay high and second‑round inflation risks grow.
- Japan’s next move is uncertain as sources say BOJ policymakers are split on an April hike, and Governor Kazuo Ueda urged vigilance over Middle East risks that could both lift prices and dent growth, leaving a close call at the April 27–28 meeting.
- Australia is flashing stagflation warnings as RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said rates may need to rise further, and fresh surveys showed business confidence plunging to -29 and consumer sentiment dropping, with dearer fuel squeezing budgets and margins.