Overview
- PIDE’s latest Policy View Point warns that higher crude and shipping risk could add about $4.5 billion to Pakistan’s oil import bill, raising near-term pressure on the current account.
- In a worst case of $160 per barrel, PIDE projects the trade deficit could widen to $41.8 billion with inflation rising to 11.1 percent.
- The study flags exposure to Gulf trade as exports to GCC states could fall by $1.5–2.0 billion if Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, threatening factory output that depends on imported fuel.
- Analysts estimate each $10 rise in oil lifts the annual oil bill by roughly $1.5–2.0 billion, a burden made heavier by energy‑intensive industries and Pakistan’s need for 3–4 LNG cargoes each month.
- SBP data show $3.3 billion in February remittances and a $427 million monthly current‑account surplus, yet that buffer could weaken, prompting calls to reroute oil to Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port now and to diversify routes and supply under CPEC 2.0 over time.