Overview
- South Africa’s Reserve Bank, which met Thursday, kept the repo rate at 6.75% in a unanimous call and published scenarios that point to one hike if the conflict lasts about two months and several hikes if it stretches past a year.
- Federal Reserve officials Lisa Cook, Michael Barr and Philip Jefferson warned Thursday that higher energy costs raise the odds of stickier inflation and argued for holding policy steady as they watch for any rise in inflation expectations.
- Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor said Thursday he sees a high bar for raising rates and prefers holding policy until the war’s impact is clearer, even as UK inflation is expected to re-accelerate from energy costs.
- Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel after Iran restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, and UK gas prices have jumped by more than 75% this month.
- Household strain is already visible in Britain, where GfK found more people hoarding cash and putting off big purchases, while a Reuters poll pointed to the Bank of Israel holding at 4.0% next week and a former BOJ executive flagged heightened uncertainty around Japan’s next move.