Overview
- IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said inflation has already started to rise and warned that a war stretching into 2027 with oil near $125 a barrel would produce much worse global outcomes, noting fertilizer prices are up 30%–40% which could lift food costs by 3%–6%.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said a longer conflict raises the risk of fresh price spikes and said the central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation pressures build.
- Futures pricing now largely rules out U.S. rate cuts this year, with traders assigning about a 37% chance of a rate increase by March 2027.
- Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel as shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz threaten a route that typically carries about 20% of global oil and gas flows.
- President Donald Trump said the United States will start a humanitarian effort to free ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz to help neutral countries caught in the conflict’s spillover.