Overview
- U.S. and Israeli forces began operations against Iran on Feb. 28, followed by Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that handles roughly 20% of global liquid petroleum.
- West Texas Intermediate crude surged from about $67 on Feb. 27 to as high as $119 by March 9, intensifying concerns about consumer costs and corporate margins.
- Analysts warn the Federal Reserve faces a potential triple whammy of higher inflation, softer growth, and labor‑market risk that could edge the economy toward stagflation.
- U.S. equities remain highly priced, with the S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE near 39.2, a level close to late‑1990s peaks that heightens vulnerability to shocks.
- A leadership change at the Fed looms as Jerome Powell’s second term ends May 15, adding policy uncertainty as investors gauge the rate path during the conflict‑driven oil spike.