Overview
- The International Energy Agency says the conflict has triggered the most significant disruption to oil supplies, with Brent around or above $100 after a 40–50% jump since late February.
- Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is effectively halted for major oil and LNG flows, pushing up transport costs and war‑risk insurance premiums.
- Goldman Sachs warns diesel, jet fuel and naphtha face sharper shortages than crude because disruptions target medium‑to‑heavy grades and refineries, with Asia and Europe heavily exposed.
- Data‑center infrastructure in the region has suffered damage and outages, and higher energy, shipping and insurance costs are raising construction and operating expenses.
- Country‑level stress is building, with Argentine analysis estimating a 4–5 percentage‑point boost to inflation if prices persist and Mexico’s weak Pemex output and a $25.5 billion 2025 petroleum deficit limiting any net fiscal gain from higher crude.