Overview
- U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran began on Feb. 28, and Iran subsequently curbed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global liquid petroleum, according to the EIA.
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose from roughly $67 on Feb. 27 to as high as $119 by March 9 as supply fears intensified.
- Analysts warn the oil spike elevates the risk of stagflation, leaving the Federal Reserve with difficult tradeoffs on interest rates.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting suggests President Trump is unlikely to renominate him, increasing near‑term policy uncertainty.
- The S&P 500 remains richly valued with a Shiller CAPE near 39.2, and some strategists highlight potential relative opportunities in small- and mid-cap ETFs such as IJR and VO.