Overview
- Brent crude briefly rose above $100 after Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, a Thursday development that widened fears of supply disruptions through the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.
- Late Friday reports that Pakistan, with Chinese encouragement, was exploring a path to resume U.S.–Iran talks helped push Brent back toward $96–97 and eased the 10-year Treasury yield to about 4.68%, calming futures and giving markets some relief.
- Alphabet’s upgrade of full-year capital spending guidance to as much as $205 billion triggered a sharp drop in its stock and set off broader investor concern about outsized AI-related spending, with Tesla and several chipmakers also reporting big increases in capex.
- Policy and security developments added to market stress: the U.S. completed a reported 13th straight night of strikes on Iranian-linked targets, President Donald Trump said he holds Iran responsible and is weighing large military options, and new U.S. import tariffs of roughly 10%–12.5% went into effect.
- The next inflection points are clear: coming megacap earnings will test whether AI spending can deliver returns, the Federal Reserve’s decision will respond to any inflation pressure from higher energy costs, and any credible diplomatic progress or military escalation will drive oil and market volatility.