Overview
- Oman said the Geneva round made “significant progress,” with technical-level negotiations scheduled in Vienna next week after no deal was reached.
- Crude prices swung sharply during the talks, but Brent and WTI are on course for their first weekly drop in four weeks as traders reassess near‑term conflict risks.
- Analysts estimate a $4–$10 per barrel war‑risk premium in prices and raised 2026 forecasts in a Reuters poll despite concerns about a mid‑year surplus.
- The EIA reported a 16 million‑barrel U.S. crude inventory build for the week to Feb. 20, reinforcing bearish fundamentals even as volatility persists.
- OPEC+ is set to weigh a roughly 137,000 bpd April increase on Sunday, while a larger U.S. regional military posture and Saudi contingency plans keep focus on Strait of Hormuz supply risks.