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Oil Set for Weekly Decline as Iran Risk Eases and Outlook Weakens

IEA's downgrade of 2026 demand growth shifted traders' focus to an oversupplied mid‑year outlook.

Overview

  • Brent hovered near $67.6 and WTI around $62.9 early Friday, putting both benchmarks on course for a second straight weekly drop after Thursday’s selloff.
  • Geopolitical support faded after President Trump said a deal with Iran could be reached next month and that negotiations would continue, easing the recent risk premium.
  • U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels last week versus a 793,000-barrel consensus, following the API’s larger 13.4-million estimate, with refinery utilization down 1.1 points.
  • The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 850,000 bpd, a revision that sparked a roughly 3% intraday pullback as traders reassessed supply-demand balances.
  • The EIA’s latest outlook projects persistent global stock builds and Brent averaging $58 in 2026 and $53 in 2027, reinforcing a weaker medium-term price trajectory.