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Oil Set for Second Weekly Loss as Iran Risk Ebbs and IEA Flags 2026 Surplus

Fading war fears shift attention to oversupply signs from a hefty U.S. stock build alongside a weaker demand outlook.

Overview

  • Brent hovered near $67.5 and WTI near $62.7 on Friday, leaving both benchmarks on track for a second straight weekly decline after a sharp Thursday drop.
  • The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 demand growth outlook to about 850,000 barrels per day and projected a market surplus next year.
  • U.S. government data showed an 8.5 million‑barrel crude inventory build, far exceeding expectations and reinforcing near‑term oversupply.
  • The geopolitical risk premium eased after President Trump suggested Iran talks could take up to a month, though a second U.S. carrier deployment to the region was reported.
  • Supply signals were mixed as OPEC output fell by roughly 439,000 barrels per day on Kazakhstan disruptions, while reports pointed to possible future gains from Venezuela through new licenses.