Overview
- Following Monday’s rally on President Trump’s five-day pause claim, prices and stocks flipped Tuesday as Tehran rejected talks and reports said Saudi Arabia and the UAE may allow U.S. base access.
- Brent held near $104 and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, choking roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil flows despite record emergency reserve releases.
- Enverus projected Brent to average $95 for the rest of 2026 and $100 in 2027 as inventories drain and supply stays slow to respond, reinforcing a higher-for-longer outlook.
- U.S. gasoline averages are up about $1 in a month to roughly $3.97, and Stanford and Oxford estimate a typical household will spend about $740 more on fuel this year, nearly matching the $748 refund boost estimated by the Tax Foundation.
- Goldman Sachs and the IEA frame the disruption as a severe supply shock with inflation risks, while gold slides, energy shares rise, and an early Cleveland Fed gauge flags hotter March price pressures.