Overview
- High‑level U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha and reports on July 1 said planned negotiations showed little decisive progress, a development that pushed oil prices up.
- Iran issued mixed messages about talks, with Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi saying Iran and Oman will hold technical meetings on transit routes while Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagai said no talks with the U.S. are planned.
- Shipping data show Middle East producers have kept exports moving but tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain uneven because of recent attacks, de‑mining needs, and continued caution by shipowners.
- Traders face offsetting market signals after a reported 6.1 million barrel U.S. crude stock draw and weak Chinese demand, and analysts have trimmed 2026 price forecasts for the first time since the conflict began.
- U.S. political pressure on retail fuel prices from President Trump and the temporary nature of the June memorandum mean flows and risk premia could reverse quickly, and full normalisation of Gulf shipping is likely to take weeks.