Overview
- WTI reversed nearly 12% to the low $80s after surging toward $119 on Monday, with the pullback following President Trump's comments that the war with Iran is "pretty much" over and a G-7 pledge to release reserves if needed.
- The dollar finished little changed after swinging with energy prices, as a late rebound in Treasury yields helped offset oil-driven pressure earlier in the day.
- Reports pointed to fresh supply risks with an Iranian drone strike said to have halted operations at the UAE’s Ruwais refinery and a Mehr report of a tanker explosion near Abu Dhabi, with details still developing.
- Market-implied odds of a -25 bp Fed cut at next week’s meeting remained very low, with estimates ranging from 0% to 4% across coverage.
- Gold rose on safe-haven demand and ongoing central-bank buying, including a reported January increase in PBOC reserves, as geopolitical risks stayed elevated.