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Oil Past $100 Puts U.S. Low-Cost Producers in the Lead

Analysts highlight ConocoPhillips, EOG, Occidental, Diamondback for strong free cash flow at today’s prices.

Overview

  • Brent crude has climbed more than 70% this year to above $100 a barrel after the Iran war disrupted Persian Gulf shipping and struck oil infrastructure.
  • Energy shares have surged with the move in crude, with the average S&P 500 energy stock up about 40% this year.
  • ConocoPhillips needs only mid-$40s oil to fund its capital plan and roughly $10 more to cover its dividend, while EOG reports triple‑digit well returns at $55 oil after cutting drilling and operating costs.
  • Occidental sold its OxyChem unit to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion, which let it pay down debt and target over $1.2 billion in extra free cash flow this year even before the latest price jump.
  • Diamondback can sustain output at roughly $30 oil and was guided to generate about $3.1 billion in free cash at $50 and $6.7 billion at $80, while one columnist predicts Occidental and Diamondback could double if the conflict escalates.