Overview
- Bond yields climbed on Thursday, with the 10‑year around 4.68–4.71%, the 2‑year near 4.31–4.33%, and the 30‑year remaining above 5% for its longest stretch since 2007.
- Brent crude and U.S. oil prices pushed toward or above $100 per barrel after reported attacks on tankers and renewed threats between Washington and Tehran.
- Traders raised the probability of near‑term Federal Reserve rate moves, with CME FedWatch measures showing a material uptick in priced hike odds ahead of the next Fed meeting.
- Markets flagged fiscal stress as a separate driver of higher yields, citing rising U.S. war spending and recent U.K. tax cuts that have lifted gilt yields and added a sovereign premium.
- Higher oil and rising safe‑rate yields are weighing on risk assets by making low‑risk government debt relatively more attractive, pressuring equities and non‑yielding assets such as Bitcoin.