Overview
- Crude hovered around $95–$101 a barrel after a brief pullback below $100, with tanker traffic still constrained through the Strait of Hormuz despite reports of at least one Indian vessel exiting.
- Global markets were volatile but steadied late morning: U.S. stocks inched higher after Thursday’s slide, Europe was mixed, and the dollar climbed to multi‑month highs as a preferred safe haven.
- Currency stress deepened in Asia, with the yen weakening to its softest level since 2024 as Japan warned it may act, and India’s rupee hitting a record low alongside sharp declines in Sensex and Nifty.
- Policy steps—including the IEA’s record 400 million‑barrel release and a 30‑day U.S. license for some Russian petroleum at sea—were viewed as limited against a continuing shipping choke point.
- Rate‑cut bets were pushed back ahead of next week’s central‑bank meetings, as U.S. data showed core PCE rose 0.4% in January and Q4 GDP was revised down, reinforcing expectations for a slower easing path.