Overview
- Oil jumped to about $96–97 on Monday after Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Navy took control of an Iranian freighter.
- European stocks reversed part of Friday’s rally, with the DAX down about 1.3% at the open and U.S. index futures weaker.
- The Brent futures curve is in backwardation, with near delivery near $96–97 versus about $78 for December, which signals tight supply now.
- Germany’s regulator BaFin ordered brokers to post clear risk warnings on leveraged oil notes and to test buyers’ knowledge before trades.
- Traders still bank on strong U.S. first‑quarter earnings and AI enthusiasm, yet analysts warn a longer Iran crisis could lift energy costs and reignite rate concerns.