Overview
- Brent and WTI have tumbled from wartime highs to the low $70s and just under $70 respectively as traders price out the conflict premium.
- Following two days of indirect U.S.‑Iran talks in Doha that ended without a permanent deal on Thursday, some tanker transits have resumed under the interim memorandum.
- Gulf producers rushed to ship crude back toward pre‑war volumes and U.S. SPR releases continued, flipping the futures curve into contango and signaling expectations of near‑term surplus.
- Market players have shifted positions toward shorts and major banks such as Citigroup now project Brent could fall to about $60 a barrel by year‑end if flows keep rising.
- Key risks remain: mine clearance, insurer and shipowner confidence, stranded tanker backlogs and a fragile 60‑day negotiation window that expires in August, any of which could quickly restore a large premium and spike prices.