Overview
- Brent and WTI closed at their lowest levels since early March, with Brent at $87.33 and WTI at $84.88, while Mexico’s export blend fell to $81.97 as prices slid on renewed confidence in a diplomacy-led pause in Gulf hostilities.
- A western source told Reuters that a memorandum to stop the Gulf fighting could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva, a report that traders moved to price into markets but that remains unconfirmed.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly said no memorandum has been signed and that terms could still change, leaving the outcome uncertain and vulnerable to rapid reversal.
- Market liquidity has weakened sharply this year, with open interest in Brent futures down about 17% year-to-date, which makes oil prices more prone to abrupt swings on political signals and statements.
- If a memorandum is confirmed, it could ease fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and lower near-term oil risk premiums, but traders warn that stalled talks or new public statements could quickly push prices back up.