Overview
- Brent slipped below $60 and WTI to the mid‑$50s on Tuesday, marking the weakest levels since early 2021 as traders cut the geopolitical risk premium.
- President Donald Trump said a Russia–Ukraine peace deal was closer than ever, a signal analysts said could ease logistics distortions and free additional Russian barrels.
- Prices bounced more than 2% on Wednesday after Trump announced a “complete and total” blockade on tankers operating to and from Venezuela, with Brent regaining $60.
- The International Energy Agency reported strong 2025 supply growth and projects an average 3.7 million barrels per day surplus in 2026, even as OPEC maintains a demand growth outlook led by non‑OECD countries.
- Downstream effects are building, with U.S. gasoline poised near $2.79 per gallon for Christmas and Mexico’s export blend dropping to about $51.55, pressuring federal revenue assumptions.