Overview
- Washington and Tehran confirmed negotiations in Oman on Friday after venue wrangling with Istanbul, easing immediate fears of a breakdown.
- Crude whipsawed this week, jumping roughly 3% on reports talks might collapse before retracing gains once the Oman meeting was confirmed.
- The two sides remain far apart on scope, with Iran pushing nuclear-only discussions and the U.S. seeking to include missiles, regional proxies and human rights.
- Recent incidents near the Strait of Hormuz, including a U.S. shootdown of an Iranian drone and a reported boarding attempt on a U.S. merchant vessel, kept a residual risk premium in prices.
- An unexpectedly large U.S. crude inventory draw offered short-term support, yet forecasters highlighted oversupply risks and noted prices were on track for the first weekly dip of the year.