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Oil and Gold Poised for Outsized Monthly Gains as Geopolitical Risk Lifts Commodities

Policy and military uncertainty from Washington is sustaining a hefty risk premium in global markets.

Overview

  • Brent is up about 14.7% and U.S. WTI roughly 12% for January despite late pullbacks, setting up their strongest monthly advances in years.
  • Gold sank sharply intraday yet remains more than 20% higher this month, tracking its biggest monthly rise since 1980.
  • U.S. officials told Reuters that President Donald Trump is weighing options on Iran with no decision taken, while major banks expect any action to be limited in scope.
  • The White House said Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on countries supplying Cuba with oil, adding to the geopolitical backdrop affecting prices.
  • Analysts cite supply strains from Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela near 1.5 million barrels per day this month and a U.S. weather hit of about 340,000 barrels per day, as Kazakhstan works to restart the Tengiz field after fires.