Overview
- Analysts expect Ofgem on Wednesday to set the April–June cap near £1,641 for a typical dual‑fuel household, a fall of roughly 7% from current levels.
- The change reflects November’s policy to move 75% of Renewables Obligation costs into general taxation and to scrap the ECO scheme, cutting electricity unit rates by about 3.37p/kWh.
- Actual savings will vary by usage, with Cornwall Insight estimating the net cap reduction at around £145 a year after VAT and methodology allowances, not a flat £150 per home.
- Part of the benefit is being offset by higher network charges and recent wholesale price movements, with gas costs still volatile due to geopolitical factors.
- Outlook from forecasters points to a broadly steady cap through 2026, while the Resolution Foundation warns of a potential 2029 bill rise when the government discount is scheduled to end.