Overview
- Commerce Department data put the 2025 goods-and-services deficit at about $901.5 billion, down 0.2% from 2024, with the December shortfall widening to $70.3 billion.
- The goods trade deficit reached a record near $1.24 trillion despite the tariff campaign, while the services surplus grew to roughly $339.5 billion.
- Trade flows shifted sharply away from China, where the goods deficit fell to about $202.1 billion, as gaps with Taiwan (about $146.8 billion), Vietnam (about $178.2 billion) and Mexico (about $196.9 billion) increased.
- A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study and JPMorgan research indicate roughly 90% of tariff costs were borne by U.S. businesses and consumers, with midsize firms’ tariff payments tripling in 2025.
- Volatility reflected front‑loaded imports early in the year, AI‑related demand for capital goods, and swings in nonmonetary gold, and a Supreme Court ruling on the administration’s tariff authority is expected soon.