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Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael Throws Israeli Vote Math Into Flux

Wednesday's conflicting polls over whether his new list crosses the electoral threshold leave coalition arithmetic unsettled.

Overview

  • Former brigadier general Ofer Winter announced the Amcha Yisrael list this week and the party immediately became a live factor in election calculations.
  • Polls published Wednesday produced starkly different outcomes: a Channel 13 survey showed Amcha Yisrael failing to pass the threshold while Lazar Research/Walla and an i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey gave it between six and eight Knesset seats.
  • Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar remains the consistent leader across polls with about 24–25 seats, reinforcing his role as the central pivot for coalition talks.
  • The different poll results shift small parties above or below the 3.25% threshold, producing divergent bloc totals that put the Netanyahu/right grouping anywhere from the high 40s to the high 50s of 120 seats.
  • Because Israel's threshold can move dozens of seats at once, the next published polls and any pre-election mergers will be decisive for who can realistically assemble a 61-seat governing coalition.