Overview
- OECD’s interim outlook released Thursday projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, citing the US–Iran conflict’s hit to energy markets.
- The halt of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged infrastructure has pushed up oil, gas and fertiliser prices, with G20 inflation now seen at 4.0% in 2026.
- India is forecast to grow 7.6% in FY2025–26 and 6.1% in FY2026–27, remaining the fastest among major economies ahead of China at 4.4%, the US at 2.0%, Japan at 0.9% and the UK at 0.7%.
- OECD expects India’s inflation to climb to 5.1% in FY2026–27 from 2.0% a year earlier, and it signals a likely temporary RBI rate hike in Q2 2026 that would raise borrowing costs for households and firms.
- The projections assume energy pressures ease from mid‑2026, but the OECD warns that longer disruptions could hit growth harder even as lower US tariff rates give some support to exporters in India and other emerging markets.