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OBR Warns Millions More Could Be Hit by UK Limit on NI Relief for Salary-Sacrifice Pensions

Fresh OBR analysis warns employer responses could spread costs beyond the 3.3 million directly affected.

Overview

  • From April 2029, pension contributions made via salary sacrifice above £2,000 a year will lose their National Insurance exemption under legislation moving through Parliament.
  • HMRC estimates 7.7 million employees use salary sacrifice and about 3.3 million currently exceed the £2,000 threshold identified for direct impact.
  • The OBR calls the behavioural response highly uncertain, outlining scenarios in which employers switch contribution methods, hold down wages, or end salary sacrifice schemes.
  • OBR materials reference substantial pass-through of employer costs to staff, while Treasury costings forecast £4.8bn in revenue in 2029/30, falling to £2.6bn the following year.
  • Industry groups and former minister Sir Steve Webb warn modest earners could lose out, as the Treasury defends the change as targeting high earners and says 95% of salary sacrifice users earning under £30,000 are protected, with an ABI/REBA survey finding 99% of businesses expect to be affected.