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OBR Says UKMansion Tax’ Will Hit 165,000 Homes From 2028

The fiscal watchdog warns of modest returns alongside heavy volumes of valuation appeals.

Overview

  • The High Value Council Tax Surcharge will add a fixed annual charge to homes worth more than £2 million starting in April 2028, with four bands of £2,500, £3,500, £5,000 and £7,500 indexed to inflation.
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility now expects about 165,000 properties to be charged in the first year, up from earlier estimates of 120,000, while fewer than 1% of English homes will be caught.
  • Treasury and OBR forecasts put revenue at about £400 million in 2028–29, rising to around £435 million by 2030–31 as the policy beds in.
  • The OBR expects around 20% of liable owners to appeal their valuations, with about 40% of those appeals succeeding, meaning more than 13,000 households could overturn charges.
  • The impact will fall most on London and the South East, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies says Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster and Camden could account for nearly a quarter of all affected homes.