Overview
- The Office for Budget Responsibility now expects net migration to average 235,000 a year from 2026 to 2030, down from 295,000 projected in November.
- The revision is driven primarily by higher outward migration of British nationals, which leaves the adult population about 200,000 smaller by 2030 than previously expected.
- A reduced labour supply marginally lowers aggregate potential output growth by 0.1 percentage points a year on average, leaving the level of potential output 0.25 percentage points lower by 2030.
- The OBR excluded proposed changes to indefinite leave to remain and asylum policy from its baseline and highlighted uncertainty over impacts on productivity and living standards.
- IFS director Helen Miller said the migration path could be revised down again, as the Home Office has outlined tougher asylum measures including refugee status reviews every 30 months.