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NZ Confidence High as Pricing Pressures Reemerge, Putting RBNZ on Alert

ANZ warns persistent price signals could bring forward tighter RBNZ policy.

Overview

  • ANZ’s January Business Outlook shows headline confidence easing to 64 from December’s 74 yet remaining historically strong.
  • Surveyed firms report solid momentum in past activity and employment, pointing to potential for a firm fourth‑quarter GDP outcome.
  • Pricing intentions jumped to a net 56.5% and numerical pricing intentions rose to 2.1%, with cost expectations lifting notably in construction and retail.
  • Wage indicators strengthened as expected wage growth reached 2.8% and 72% of firms reported pay increases over the past year.
  • ANZRoy Morgan consumer confidence climbed to 107.2, a four‑year high, with the big‑ticket purchase gauge turning positive at +1 and household inflation expectations steady at 4.6%.