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NY Fed Says Americans Bore About 90% of 2025 Tariff Costs as Legal Showdown Nears

The new analysis highlights a late-year shift toward greater exporter absorption alongside a surge in tariff collections.

Overview

  • Using data through November 2025, the New York Fed estimates U.S. buyers absorbed 94% of tariff costs from January to August, 92% in September–October, and 86% in November as some burden shifted abroad.
  • Economists report average U.S. tariff rates jumped from roughly 2.6% to about 13% over 2025, with limited foreign price cuts to offset the increases.
  • Customs receipts soared, with $287 billion collected in calendar 2025 and $30 billion in January 2026, reflecting the higher duties.
  • Companies detailed the strain, with Procter & Gamble raising prices and General Motors citing a $1.1 billion profit hit, while importers shifted sourcing away from China toward Mexico and Vietnam.
  • Political and legal tests are intensifying, as the House voted to overturn certain Canada-focused tariffs, the Supreme Court weighs the administration’s IEEPA authority, and the White House reviews potential metal-tariff exemptions and a pause on further expansions.