Particle.news
Download on the App Store

NY Fed Finds U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations Largely Unchanged

Stable household inflation forecasts reduce immediate pressure for policy moves while energy-driven price swings and rising job-loss fears leave Fed choices uncertain.

Overview

  • The New York Fed’s July survey showed one-year inflation expectations at 3.6% and three- and five-year expectations steady at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively.
  • Households reported slightly better views of their current and future finances but said credit is harder to obtain now and expected to ease later.
  • Respondents again anticipated higher gasoline prices a year ahead while home-price growth expectations held at about 3.2%.
  • Consumers signaled a higher chance of future unemployment and a greater prospect of losing a job, even as the odds of finding work after a job loss improved in July.
  • Measured inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal and volatile energy costs linked to the Middle East war are complicating whether policymakers will raise rates further, a development that could tighten borrowing costs for households and businesses.