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Nvidia’s Valuation Slips Below the S&P 500 as Analysts Point to More AI Upside

The pullback contrasts with record data‑center sales and a trillion‑dollar AI pipeline.

Overview

  • Nvidia now trades around 19.7–20 times forward earnings, a level at or below the S&P 500 for the first time in years.
  • Shares have fallen roughly 3% since the Iran conflict began on Feb. 27, with investors citing war risk and higher borrowing costs for data‑center builds.
  • The company posted 73% year‑over‑year revenue growth to $68.1 billion in fiscal Q4 2026 and guided about $78.0 billion for the next quarter, while the CEO flagged at least $1 trillion in 2025–2027 demand.
  • Analysts are modeling higher outcomes after GTC, with Wells Fargo seeing 15%–20% upside to 2026–2027 data‑center revenue and Wolfe sizing the Rubin Ultra pod opportunity using a “200 per week” production comment.
  • Retail buyers kept adding to positions, as J.P. Morgan said Nvidia was the most purchased individual stock among individual investors for the week ending March 25.